Sunday 19 January 2020

Staying in "UNDERS" ...

Last week I gave away a tip: betting on Under in NCAAB when the total set on above 145 (in games of big home dogs). 
Those who figured out what is my definition for "big" and followed the tip were rewarded..


I didn't mention the handicap for reason.. There is a Russian proverb saying that "Without effort, you won’t pull a fish out of a pond" (something like "No pain, no gain").

I also mentioned the Under and 209 betting in NBA. Since the post there was only one qualifier (winner, by the way).

In my opinion, so far this season, the NBA very similar to last one (I mean the stats in common). 

Till now, there were 636 games games in the season. The points average is 221.3, while the average total posted by the books stands on 220.6 points..

After almost same amount of games (637 actually) in previous season - the average points scored was 220.7 and the average total posted by the books was on 220.2 points..

Now, the bigger difference... so far in 2019-20 season only 45 matches qualified for Under 209 (it's 7.07%) - 29 winners and 16 losers..
In 2018-19 season there were 68 qualifiers (10.67% of games) - the difference is huge, but explainable.. The results were only 34-30-4 in favor of unders and improved big time by the end of the season, finishing 90-62-5..

How to use this info? Tweet me if you have ideas.. 
Instinctively, playing a bit higher than 209 should be also profitable (210) till the end of the season..
209.5 and 210 totals were set 25 times this season (10 unders-14-1).

Bonus (till now):
There is a lot of myths about betting over in back-to back situations.. They are mostly about NBA (13-13, -0.63 units so far this season and 167-163-12 in previous 5 seasons, -4.01 units), but not only.. 

Look for myth rebuttal.

Bet on Under 5.5 or above in NHL.. look for home team without rest facing a not very well rested opponent. 

See Ya :)

5 comments:

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