Staying in "UNDERS" ...

Last week I gave away a tip: betting on Under in NCAAB when the total set on above 145 (in games of big home dogs). 
Those who figured out what is my definition for "big" and followed the tip were rewarded..

I didn't mention the handicap for reason.. There is a Russian proverb saying that "Without effort, you won’t pull a fish out of a pond" (something like "No pain, no gain").

I also mentioned the Under and 209 betting in NBA. Since the post there was only one qualifier (winner, by the way).

In my opinion, so far this season, the NBA very similar to last one (I mean the stats in common). 

Till now, there were 636 games games in the season. The points average is 221.3, while the average total posted by the books stands on 220.6 points..

After almost same amount of games (637 actually) in previous season - the average points scored was 220.7 and the average total posted by the books was on 220.2 points..

Now, the bigger difference... so far in 2019-20 season only 45 matches qualified for Under 209 (it's 7.07%) - 29 winners and 16 losers..
In 2018-19 season there were 68 qualifiers (10.67% of games) - the difference is huge, but explainable.. The results were only 34-30-4 in favor of unders and improved big time by the end of the season, finishing 90-62-5..

How to use this info? Tweet me if you have ideas.. 
Instinctively, playing a bit higher than 209 should be also profitable (210) till the end of the season..
209.5 and 210 totals were set 25 times this season (10 unders-14-1).

Bonus (till now):
There is a lot of myths about betting over in back-to back situations.. They are mostly about NBA (13-13, -0.63 units so far this season and 167-163-12 in previous 5 seasons, -4.01 units), but not only.. 
Look for myth rebuttal.

Bet on Under 5.5 or above in NHL.. look for home team without rest facing a not very well rested opponent. 

See Ya :)

Looking for UNDERS in basketball?

There is a lot of bettors/gamblers who's DNA asking to bet mostly "Unders".. Let's see if in sports where the averages go up it still make sense?

It still profitable to bet the "Under" in MLB when the total is too low and such an "under number" can be found in NFL (but about that not now).

NBA?

I'm currently betting the OVER if the number is above 227 (adding some filters)..
Even without filters this number gave so far 70-50-3 (58.3% success) or 16.64 units (playing pinnacle 1.952 average odds) - ROI around 13.5% (with filters it's 60-36-3 and 62.5% success).

Under?
In 2015-16 season the lowest total was set on 180 (and the game went under).

The lowest total set by the books this season was 200 (once), only in 68 games the total was set on 210 or lower (around 12% from all games)..
So what is too low?
The idea is not only to find such a number/s, but also to have enough occasions to bet it.

Any of the <=216 can be good enough and it depends on for how much action and swings you ready.
As for me - it's 209 (and not because of the green in current season).

Bonus (till now):
NCAAB: Bet on Under when the total set on above 145 (in games of big home dogs).

See Ya:)

Review of the models (strategies) - Austria Bundesliga and Erste Liga

After almost one year of "blog silence" I decided to post once again.
The decision to stick to trend plays was one of my best decisions connected with sport betting..
There is no "feelings" involved once placing bets and it's a huge progress for me (try it and you will have no regrets :) ).
Bad streaks happens, but good ones occurs also.
Don't chase and don't feel bad about losing days - your discipline will pay off.
The bad thing is you already knew it, but most of you still have no discipline.

As already described in my previous posts - I play the closing line (my bot make the play one minute before kick-off if the numbers (odds) suite the strategy..
The strategy based on previous season results (in soccer it's last 9 seasons)..

Every season have his bad and good streaks, so once choosing a strategy I keep in mind what were the maximum DDs (drawdowns) in previous seasons.. My decision is once a new max drawdown occurs - the plays for the specific strategy are stopped till the end of the season..
It's a conservative way to do things (and at the end of the season I'll check if this decision won or lost money), but I hardly believe this decision will be changed.

Starting from mid July 2019 there were 1762 plays (53 strategies involved right now and 3 more were stopped during the season).

Units Won 82.73 (playing 1 unit for play) - ROI = 4.70%

Below is the description (of what I can give away 😀 ) of 3 strategies and more to come... 

Strategy 1 (Austria Bundesliga - (away wins)).

Starting from the 2010-11 season, betting on visitors once they play not a very big favorites - was very profitable..
With an average of around 35 plays per season - this strategy made 88.27 units in the period (ROI = 28%) and had only one losing season..
Right now, after 12 plays it's down 1.31 units, but there is still a lot of matches to come after the winter break.
The MAX DD of the previous seasons was around 9 units..

Strategy 2 (Austria Bundesliga - (draws)).

The big favorites are overrated (home and away), so betting on draw in such a scenario is not a bad idea at all. Here the 2017-18 season was the only losing one..
Right now, the system is up 8.20 units (after 31 plays).








Strategy 3 (Austria Erste Liga - (away wins)).

The dogs are underrated in the second league of Austrian football.
In the 2019-20 season - after 40 plays - this system is 16.51 units up!

Happy New Year and See Ya :)