The over this season continues to be profitable..
Starting from January 1, 2019 I started to sell 1.5 points to pinnacle.
The bookies total vs. final score have a delta (difference) of more than 16 points as of December 23.
In other words, on average, the bookies miss the total by 16 points (over or under)...
It seems like a big miss!!!
For example: If the line is 221.5 and the odds are around 1.952 - the odds for over 223 (or under 220) are around 2.12 (almost 0.17 more).. In order just to break even I should win 6 of 7 (85.7%) or the bookies should set the line in around 1.5 point of final score in 14.3% of matches... But it's not the case..
As I mentioned.. the delta as of December 23 is a huge 16 points!!!
The bookies were in around 1.5 points from the final score only 4.95% of times.
In numbers...
Let's say you had 150 picks playing over picks with odds of 1.952 and have only around 5% ROI (81 wins - 69 losses)...
Betting on 1.5 point (more or less) left you with 77 wins (81 - 4.95% = 77) and 73 losses..
But the odds are 2.12 - so your ROI is (77*2.12-150)/150 = 9%.
And 9% is much better than 5% :)
Actually it's even better than 9%, because I'm not counting the pushes..
Will be interesting to check this simple improvement (?) for past seasons..
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