Tuesday, 1 January 2019

Happy New Year!!!

What a great date for a post!!!

Most of us think that a new year (or a new month or our birthday etc.) is a new starting point and everything will change for good... The date means nothing although we will change our attitude and discipline...

I thought it will be a good idea to delete my previous posts and start everything (including this blog) from a white empty list, but I'm not sure yet..

Inspired by the blog of Cassini (http://green-all-over.blogspot.com) and my own ideas - I do think I found a way to make a profit from betting (hate this word) on sports..

The best way to do so is to find trends in different leagues (mostly soccer) and stick to the plan..
I started to do so with the help of my bot.. "He" place bets one minute before the start of the event (kind of "closing odds") if the odds suggesting so.

Trends...How it works for me?
Example:
Russian Premier League. According to closing odds of the last 8 years, betting on home team in every single match is profitable... There was 1289 matches (pinnacle odds) and betting every home team shows +18.57 units (ROI: 1.44%). Good sign for looking for a profit, but the profit is very low!!
Step 2: I compare the difference (in odds) between the favorites and underdogs to find where from the most of profit came...
In Russia, in matches where the difference between the favorites and underdogs is up to 15% and the home team is favorite - I'll bet the home team... 32.75 matches per year suit this strategy and shows an average profit of 3.41 units (ROI: 10.42%)... 6 of the last 8 years were profitable..
3.41 units sound very low for one year, but imagine you found trends for 30-40 leagues/sports...

In NBA and NHL I made 4 groups to find trends.. east-east, west - east, east - west and west-west..
I will also bet the Over 221.5 line in every single NBA game...

Cassini in his blog speaks about "beast" (google it) and plays the Over 215.5 line...
I think that the bookies see that the average points per game jumped too match and set their lines accordingly..
The 2017/18 season points average was 208.89 and betting the over 215.5 line showed around 10% ROI.., but season 2018/19 shows 220.36!!!
Over 221.5 is good for now only, but I almost sure I will move it forward as the season continue...

Bank and unit..
Starting bank size (a few hundreds of euro).. Unit size: 1%.
I played 2%... 2.5%... and 1.25%...but starting from 2019 the unit size will be 1% only... There will be draw downs during the year and I want to reduce risks.. I made stupid things after loosing 20% of the bank during the day and I'm still not sure in myself (hopefully 2019 will change it for good with my co-operation...)

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