As I described before - I use a bot that place bets 1 minute before kick-off if it fit my model, so my plays are very-very close to "closing" odds..
According to the last eight years data - it was very profitable to play big home underdogs in EPL, but season 2018-19 shows a 0-9 run from the start of the season...
I was lucky enough to start my plays after the season start and own a 0-2 record, but still it's disappointing..
The favorites are 8-1-0 (there even no enough draws... for a plays with a hope for a win. Is the differences between the teams so big? The scores shows a big YES.
Liverpool, Man.City and Chelsea started the season in storm and play even the very weak opponents in full squads.. My model shows an average of 20 matches per season that good for a play, but after 10 rounds (out of 38) already 9 matches fit the strategy... and it's one more sign for a bigger gap between the teams...
Having a lot of a strategies in my portfolio - I will continue with those underdog plays, but (in this 3 leaders season) I'm very skeptic - it will have a success in this season.
Here is the data of the last 8 seasons (playing home dogs with odds around 7):
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