Premier League Surprises - where they are?

All my models are based on past data... and based on closing odds..
As I described before - I use a bot that place bets 1 minute before kick-off if it fit my model, so my plays are very-very close to "closing" odds..

According to the last eight years data - it was very profitable to play big home underdogs in EPL, but season 2018-19 shows a 0-9 run from the start of the season...
I was lucky enough to start my plays after the season start and own a 0-2 record, but still it's disappointing..
The favorites are 8-1-0 (there even no enough draws... for a plays with a hope for a win. Is the differences between the teams so big? The scores shows a big YES.
Liverpool, Man.City and Chelsea started the season in storm and play even the very weak opponents in full squads.. My model shows an average of 20 matches per season that good for a play, but after 10 rounds (out of 38) already 9 matches fit the strategy... and it's one more sign for a bigger gap between the teams...
Having a lot of a strategies in my portfolio - I will continue with those underdog plays, but (in this 3 leaders season) I'm very skeptic - it will have a success in this season.

Here is the data of the last 8 seasons (playing home dogs with odds around 7):

"Liiga" - Finland Hockey League trends

In one of my posts (here or on twitter) I mentioned that currently working on Finland Hockey League model.. The work is now over and I found nothing interesting for me... but..
European hockey lines are including the possibility to bet on "Draw" after 60 minutes and not a lazy bettor can quit easily find draw trends (with a nice profit).

The average odds for a "Draw" in Finland are 4.46 (in last 8 seasons) and betting them blindly shows + 34 units (poor ROI of 1% out of 3446 selections)...

One filter can change a lot... You can bet only on "close matches" (where the difference between the teams is up to 10%) and You already getting only 890 selections and 89 units profit (nice ROI of 10%).

 I'm personally don't want it in my portfolio, because it not shows profit every year (or at least 7 out of 8 last checked years), but those who want should know that in last 4 seasons this easy to make system made a ROI of 31%

What's next?
I will take it easy and will work on more soccer leagues to add to my model.. (Right now 10 in my list:
Argentina, Brazil, Japan, USA, S.Korea, Norway, Sweden (both), Finland, Ireland.
Those leagues are close to finish their seasons and I'll be ready for the next season..).

WNBA, NRL, AFL and MLB are also on my wish list..

See Ya:)

More Numbers...

As I mentioned in my previous post - all the past data of my strategies organized and I easily can make comparisons..

From the start of 2018-19 season 436 picks fit my model (I don't include here the strategy that I copied from 3rd party site). 

I started to make my wagers on September 14, so missed a huge part of it (but it's doesn't matter now). Here is the data:

My model was build on the last 8 seasons (from 2010-11 to 2017-18).

The 10.6% ROI and 46.08 units in current season looks like a good sign for the model, but how it doing comparing to seasons 2010-11 - 2017-18?

Here what I found:

Only in 2014-2015 there were fewer units than 46.08 after 436 plays (finished 7th from 8 on ROI).

Season 2011-12 had 152.78 units (best result after 436 plays), but at the end of the season finished last on ROI.

The average odds are an important factor in this data (I ignore it here).

The average odds for the winning plays in the current season are 2.52, while the average odds for the loosing plays are 3.07, so obvious it's important. 

See Ya :)

Last 8 seasons data now organized!!!

Finally, organized the data from the last 8 seasons..
To finish with it was very important for me for a few reasons: I now know what to expect for (how much plays there are usually will be per season, what strategies are doing good/bad comparing to past etc.).
Overall there will be a few dozens of strategies (7 of them taken from 3rd party as copy/paste).
Organizing the data from the past gave the opportunity to check how many plays I missed in current season (I started on September 14, 2018 while the first plays for this season started already in July).

Let me focus first on my strategies... Twenty soccer leagues involved..
On average, there is around 2343 plays per season (good to have a bot :) ). The average profit is 466 units (I for sure, will be satisfied with a half from it)..

From the start of the season I missed 315 plays (those had 26.99 units profit and a ROI of 8.6%). The profit is a good sign for the future, although the profitability is lower than the past data shows.
From September 14, there were 97 plays suiting the (my) strategies and those had 13.21 units profit and a ROI of 13.6%.

17.58% of the average plays per season already done, but the profit is only 8.62% of the average profit..

All in all I satisfied with the fact that 2018-19 season shows profit, but it's still too early to make any conclusions..

To make the plays it's quit easy... I insert the formulas in my excel sheet a few days before the matches take place and from then it's the BOT job ("he" places the wagers one minute before kick-off if the odds are suits the given strategy for the given league).

See Ya :)

Will this blog survive? And what is all about?

Hello, world!

Today is the day...
Almost everything ready to start placing bets without any emotions and only for long term profit.
Till now I'm on the loosing side.. I tried so many times, but the emotions and silly behavior left me time after time busted.. I was able to win 20 picks in a row, but after loosing one, totally lost my control chasing and placing bets on events I'm not even familiar with.

I love numbers.. and such a love usually brings money, but not in my case.. TILL NOW (I HOPE).

In order to escape crazy behavior, my only way to win is to use a strategy and stick to it.. and I started my research..

People mostly not change, so the best way in my eyes is looking for trends.. There are trends for the bookmaker work (setting up the opening odds) and there are trends for the betting public (setting the closing odds).. Yes, the bookies can adapt, but usually it takes time.

My concentration was on 20 main soccer leagues.. Comparing between favorites and underdogs - I looked for trends in every league and league (asking: what if I'll bet, for example, on Home Win in every single match when the difference between the teams is 0% to 5% according to Pinnacle closing odds?)
I looked for ROI over 10% and minimum 100 matches in the last 7-8 seasons, suiting the trend... Once finding such a trend - I looked if every single season behave the same.. only if 7 of 8, or 6 from 7 showed a profit around 10% (ROI) - I picked it for betting that will start today..
Is it data mining? The time will show, but I think is not.

There is also other strategies, but about them later...

Bet size: 1.25% of the bank (for now)

I'm not sure that I'll have too many readers, but for some reason I want to share my thoughts and way with others.. (I also have an account on blogabet, but feel like it will be very difficult to post my picks there as 90%-95 % will be placed seconds before kick-off...

I will reset the stats there today and will post  over/under picks that not necessary have to be used with closing odds - about this strategy - later...)

There is still some Excel work to do, as I want to have a tool that will compare placed bets (don't like this word) to the past.

See Ya :)