Hello, world!Today is the day...
Almost everything ready to start placing bets without any emotions and only for long term profit.
Till now I'm on the loosing side.. I tried so many times, but the emotions and silly behavior left me time after time busted.. I was able to win 20 picks in a row, but after loosing one, totally lost my control chasing and placing bets on events I'm not even familiar with.
I love numbers.. and such a love usually brings money, but not in my case.. TILL NOW (I HOPE).
In order to escape crazy behavior, my only way to win is to use a strategy and stick to it.. and I started my research..
People mostly not change, so the best way in my eyes is looking for trends.. There are trends for the bookmaker work (setting up the opening odds) and there are trends for the betting public (setting the closing odds).. Yes, the bookies can adapt, but usually it takes time.
My concentration was on 20 main soccer leagues.. Comparing between favorites and underdogs - I looked for trends in every league and league (asking: what if I'll bet, for example, on Home Win in every single match when the difference between the teams is 0% to 5% according to Pinnacle closing odds?)
I looked for ROI over 10% and minimum 100 matches in the last 7-8 seasons, suiting the trend... Once finding such a trend - I looked if every single season behave the same.. only if 7 of 8, or 6 from 7 showed a profit around 10% (ROI) - I picked it for betting that will start today..
Is it data mining? The time will show, but I think is not.
There is also other strategies, but about them later...
Bet size: 1.25% of the bank (for now)
I'm not sure that I'll have too many readers, but for some reason I want to share my thoughts and way with others.. (I also have an account on blogabet, but feel like it will be very difficult to post my picks there as 90%-95 % will be placed seconds before kick-off...
I will reset the stats there today and will post over/under picks that not necessary have to be used with closing odds - about this strategy - later...)
There is still some Excel work to do, as I want to have a tool that will compare placed bets (don't like this word) to the past.
See Ya :)
There is still some Excel work to do, as I want to have a tool that will compare placed bets (don't like this word) to the past.
See Ya :)
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