Sunday, 11 November 2018

Leagues Model - Week #6 Review (04.11.18 - 10.11.18)

I will start from the end...
A few decisions from the start of the week had influence on the results:
1. The NBA-Totals now not a part of the model (I do believe that the OVERS have a potential, but as for now, it's very dangerous for my money strategy.. too much up and downs.. Looking back - it was a good decision (at least for this week).
2. NBA, NHL (moneylines) and KHL (draws) plays also out (for now), because of BOT issues.

A few changes:
1. Starting from WEEK 7 my plays for every league (30) will be for 1 unit.
2. My weekly number reviews will not talk about money (It was silly to talk about my bank, how much I won/lost etc. It should be private. And the amounts doesn't matter at all).

So.. Week #6 numbers are good.. Friday hurt me with all 6 one unit plays lost, but Saturday made the correction..

Going back, I see that the most profitable strategies are DRAWS (and the worst: BACKING HOME TEAMS). Comparing my numbers to the last 8 seasons, they did only 57% of the units made after the same period in seasons 2010-11 to 2017-18.
According to the same data, there is still around 1500 plays expected until the end of the season.   

See Ya:)

Sunday, 4 November 2018

Leagues Model - Week #5 Review (28.10.18 - 03.11.18)

For the 2nd week in a row my models not showing profit.. Although a 2.62 units loss it's not too much (from 121 plays), but what's bother me is the fact that I'm currently on a 25.37% DD (draw down) from the highest point (and minus 9 units on stage #10... what left me with 31 units out of 40).

What is "stage"?
As I described before.. every time making a 4 or more units profit - I recalculate my staking unit.. Never reducing it.
Before 5 weeks I started from 500 euro, betting 12.5 euro (2.5%) per play.

My stages so far:

My bank was around 1,178 euro when I recalculated the unit size making it 29 euro (or 14.5 for secondary leagues), but since then the bank dropped to 916.89 euro.. and it means that I left with around 31 units..
I decided even not to think about going back until 50% DD.

Week #5 stats:

I already mentioned the last minutes of matches that hurts me (It's also the part of the game), but this week was something special.. big odds, big losses (I described it on twitter..)

And all this concluded with 1-5 on NBA Totals (still had a profitable week with 22-17).

The very best still to come!!!

See Ya:)

Tuesday, 30 October 2018

Premier League Surprises - where they are?

All my models are based on past data... and based on closing odds..
As I described before - I use a bot that place bets 1 minute before kick-off if it fit my model, so my plays are very-very close to "closing" odds..

According to the last eight years data - it was very profitable to play big home underdogs in EPL, but season 2018-19 shows a 0-9 run from the start of the season...
I was lucky enough to start my plays after the season start and own a 0-2 record, but still it's disappointing..
The favorites are 8-1-0 (there even no enough draws... for a plays with a hope for a win. Is the differences between the teams so big? The scores shows a big YES.
Liverpool, Man.City and Chelsea started the season in storm and play even the very weak opponents in full squads.. My model shows an average of 20 matches per season that good for a play, but after 10 rounds (out of 38) already 9 matches fit the strategy... and it's one more sign for a bigger gap between the teams...
Having a lot of a strategies in my portfolio - I will continue with those underdog plays, but (in this 3 leaders season) I'm very skeptic - it will have a success in this season.

Here is the data of the last 8 seasons (playing home dogs with odds around 7):

Sunday, 28 October 2018

Leagues Model - Week #4 Review (21.10.18 - 27.10.18)

Firstly, there was a mistake in my week #3 results.. The correct numbers are 75 plays, +11.94 units and a profit of 247.27 euro (the results I posted a week ago were a bit higher - by mistake I took some plays from previous week).

I feel like week #4 was very bad, although on money and units it shows a 0.98 units and 39.77 euro losses.. The problem is that I'm using a progressive staking plan (and don't wanna change it right now) - currently on a deficit of 6.39 units (it's a 15.9% bank loss on the current stage).

The money chart of the first 4 week shows...

As I mentioned before, every time I increasing the bank by 4 units - my unit recalculated (starting from next day..). So currently I'm playing a unit worth 29 euro and my bank is 992.81 euro.

You ask how I lost 39.77 last week and it's only 0.98 units? Very simple actually.. For example, I won a unit while playing 22 euro per play and lost one while playing 29.. so in this example I'm even on units, but have a money loss.

What inside those numbers?
NBA Totals had a weak week after a superb last week (Too many "w-e-e-k"s in one sentence :)).
It looks like I had too much unit losses in the last minutes of matches (just kidding... obviously it's part of the game). Kidding not kidding, but the "what if" question run in my head and once it will be interesting to check the profit / loss data happened because of the 85+ minute in the match..

The secondary leagues (excluding NBA-Totals) caused a loss of 5.17 units and -28% ROI (and I play them only 1/2 unit per play).
NBA - Totals caused a loss of 1.96 units and -10.5% ROI (and I also play them only 1/2 unit per play).
My premium 20 leagues model had a good week gain "euros" with +6.15 units last week (and a total of 27.75 units with ROI of 14.7%).
The secondary leagues overall is +2.52 units and -1.31 euros to the bank (from 131 plays..., 57 of them are NBA Totals with +2.68 units).

See Ya :)

Monday, 22 October 2018

What is going on and what's next?

In my last post I mentioned that currently working on Finland Hockey League model.. The work is now over and I found nothing interesting for me... but..
European hockey lines are including the possibility to bet on "Draw" after 60 minutes and not a lazy bettor can quit easily find draw trends (with a nice profit).

The average odds for a "Draw" in Finland are 4.46 (in last 8 seasons) and betting them blindly shows + 34 units (poor ROI of 1% out of 3446 selections)...

One filter can change a lot... You can bet only on "close matches" (where the difference between the teams is up to 10%) and You already getting only 890 selections and 89 units profit (nice ROI of 10%).

 I'm personally don't want it in my portfolio, because it not shows profit every year (or at least 7 out of 8 last checked years), but those who want should know that in last 4 seasons this easy to make system made a ROI of 31%

What's next?
I will take it easy and will work on more soccer leagues to add to my model.. (Right now 10 in my list:
Argentina, Brazil, Japan, USA, S.Korea, Norway, Sweden (both), Finland, Ireland.
Those leagues are close to finish their seasons and I'll be ready for the next season..).

WNBA, NRL, AFL and MLB are also on my wish list..

See Ya:)

Sunday, 21 October 2018

"20 Leagues Model" week #3 review (14.10.18 - 20.10.18)

Very good week...

The week off in almost all my 20 leagues (only Spain second league continued..) was something very tough to handle. So....
I decided to involve more leagues with the same strategy, so now there is 30 soccer leagues involved + NBA, NHL, KHL (also working on the hockey league of Finland).

I'll play only a half of unit on those new additions.

The results for the last week (including all the leagues) are very, very good..
So now I play 33 leagues (and the BOT is very helpful).

All, but one strategies (NBA total) are mine..

I found this strategy in one of the greatest blogs on the Earth (about betting and not only) - the blog of "Cassini" - Green All Over.

The strategy is very simple.. bet on Over in every NBA match with a posted total of 216 and above.
The results so far are amazing (I made that number 217):

14 wins - 4 losses (+4.64 units, playing 0.5 units per play..) - ROI 52.2%
I hope the bookies not loosing too much money on it, and it will take time to adjust their lines.

See Ya:)

Sunday, 14 October 2018

"20 Leagues Model" week #2 review (07.10.18 - 13.10.18)

With only a half of the plays (comparing to the previous week) the week 2 is now over.
The results superb... At some point there will be a DD (draw down), but it's always good to win more the to lose..
23 plays (with the stakes increasing to 18 euro) and 11 wins - it's big.
For sure, I can find myself in tough situations in next weeks, as my theory it's only to go forward and not reducing the stakes during the process..
The plan for the first 20 steps is to play around 2.5% of the bank per play (started from a bank of 500).

1. bank 500 (stake 12.5) to win 12.5 x 4 = 50.
2. bank 550 (stake 14)    to win 14.0 x 4 = 56
3. bank 606 (stake 15)    to win 15.0 x 4 = 60
4. bank 666 (stake 17)    to win 17.0 x 4 = 68
5. bank 734 (stake 18)    to win 18.0 x 4 = 72    NOW HERE!
6. bank 806 (stake 20)    to win 20.0 x 4 = 80
7. bank 886 (stake 22)    etc......

Here are the numbers by the end of week #2

I'm already ready with more leagues (including NHL), but not sure if involve at this stage... You don't want to fix something that works good.. The back testing shows good results, but involving more leagues will also force me to change my staking plan... something I don't want to do having excellent results in the first two weeks.

My blog on blogabet is "disabled due to failure to grade picks on time".

There is nothing to proud with (I posted the over/under strategies there and have a big minus :)  ), but anyway I'll ask their admins to re-open it and probably will post there some of my secondary leagues plays..

See Ya:)

Sunday, 7 October 2018

"20 Leagues Model" week review (30.09.18 - 06.10.18)

The first week of playing only my premiere model picks is now over.. For some reason I remember mostly the picks that I have lost (big odds and last minute losses...).
Here is few of them:
1. Aston Villa - Preston (the play was Aston Villa - odds 1.84, the home side led by 2-0 at HT then lost a player to a red card in the beginning of the 2nd half... Preston scored 3 times for a 3-2 lead.. Aston Villa made it 3-3 on 90+1 minute and missed a penalty on 90+6 minute.. F***).
2. Nottingham - Millwall (here too, the play was home win.. Nottingham led 2-0, but somehow lost 2 points on 90+1 minute with a 2-2 draw, F***).
3. Dortmund - Augsburg (the play was draw and it after 90 minutes... then the ref added 4 minutes, that actually played 6!! and Dortmund scored for a 4-3 win from free kick.. F***).
4. Young Boys - Luzern (the play was draw... Luzern scored on 87th minute and won 3-2. Young Boys lost their first match after 9 wins from the start of the season.. F***).


Here are the review of the week in numbers:

I already ready with 5 more leagues, but still not decided if I'll play them in the near future.

The 1 unit was equal to 12.5 euro and then to 14 euro.. Starting from today 1 unit = 15 euro.
Bank: 607.53 euro. Max DD was -4.99% 

See Ya:)

Tuesday, 2 October 2018

Enough.. it was enough!!!

September 28 and 29 were terrible.. The 3rd party strategies continued to lose big time.. and at the end of saturday my bank was once again 500 euro.
Not only it takes too much time to find the plays that fit the strategies, but it also shows loses.. Enough!
I also decided to stop play my over/under plays and to stick to my main 1X2 strategy.
Now I can say that 3rd party strategies were taken from
The guys (their tool is a great idea) really believe that they found the holy grale (as did I), but most of their strategies based on opening odds (and past performance).. I for sure gave it almost no time, but the losing streaks just convinced me that models based on opening odds are nothing, but data mining..
Maybe I'm wrong, but it's my decision..
For the same reason I leaved my over/under strategies..

So what's next?
I will play only my 1X2 plays.
I'm also increased the play unit to 2.5% as the past data showed that MaxDD (Maximum Drawdown) can allow it.
The unit will be recalculated after 10% bank gain.
Will post the weekly results every Sunday.

See Ya:)

Friday, 28 September 2018

Total Pageviews