Saturday, 5 January 2019

NBA Totals - Don't want to be greedy, but...


The over this season continues to be profitable..

Starting from January 1, 2019 I started to sell 1.5 points to pinnacle.
The bookies total vs. final score have a delta (difference) of more than 16 points as of December 23.
In other words, on average, the bookies miss the total by 16 points (over or under)...
It seems like a big miss!!!

For example: If the line is 221.5 and the odds are around 1.952 - the odds for over 223 (or under 220) are around 2.12 (almost 0.17 more).. In order just to break even I should win 6 of 7 (85.7%) or the bookies should set the line in around 1.5 point of final score in 14.3% of matches... But it's not the case..

As I mentioned.. the delta as of December 23 is a huge 16 points!!!
The bookies were in around 1.5 points from the final score only 4.95% of times.

In numbers... 

Let's say you had 150 picks playing over picks with odds of 1.952 and have only around 5% ROI (81 wins - 69 losses)...
Betting on 1.5 point (more or less) left you with 77 wins (81 - 4.95% = 77) and 73 losses..
But the odds are 2.12 - so your ROI is (77*2.12-150)/150 = 9%.

And 9% is much better than 5% :)

Actually it's even better than 9%, because I'm not counting the pushes..

Will be interesting to check this simple improvement (?) for past seasons..

Friday, 4 January 2019

About Betaminic.com and my strategies there

A few months ago I found a very good site.. Betaminic.com
The logo of the site: BIG Data for BIG Winners and I totally agree.
The owners did a great job, building a site (tool) where you can create different strategies using historical data and many filters...

They did a huge mistake (my opinion)... calculations of the profitability based on opening odds... WHY?
The opening odds means nothing and trying to find a winning strategy using them is nothing else, but data mining.

At the start of the season I copied 7 different system from them (even made a few real bets)..
According to those systems the average ROI was more than 20% (last 6 years).
"Surprisingly" in 2018-19 the systems are - 56 units and -16% ROI (from 339 bets, playing 1 unit per play).
Not a totally bad idea can be lay those selections :)

The site worth a visit.
The idea is very good and the site for sure will have its community.

P.S.
For my readers (and I have only a few :) )
I decided to "revert to draft" a few of my previous posts in which I mentioned money (it doesn't matter if I bet a few euros or thousands - it should be personal information).
Such an information do effect readers (and it's wrong), because it's a nature of human being.
Someday, maybe, I will edit those posts and remove the unnecessary information.

Tuesday, 1 January 2019

Happy New Year!!!

What a great date for a post!!!

Most of us think that a new year (or a new month or our birthday etc.) is a new starting point and everything will change for good... The date means nothing although we will change our attitude and discipline...

I thought it will be a good idea to delete my previous posts and start everything (including this blog) from a white empty list, but I'm not sure yet..

Inspired by the blog of Cassini (http://green-all-over.blogspot.com) and my own ideas - I do think I found a way to make a profit from betting (hate this word) on sports..

The best way to do so is to find trends in different leagues (mostly soccer) and stick to the plan..
I started to do so with the help of my bot.. "He" place bets one minute before the start of the event (kind of "closing odds") if the odds suggesting so.

Trends...How it works for me?
Example:
Russian Premier League. According to closing odds of the last 8 years, betting on home team in every single match is profitable... There was 1289 matches (pinnacle odds) and betting every home team shows +18.57 units (ROI: 1.44%). Good sign for looking for a profit, but the profit is very low!!
Step 2: I compare the difference (in odds) between the favorites and underdogs to find where from the most of profit came...
In Russia, in matches where the difference between the favorites and underdogs is up to 15% and the home team is favorite - I'll bet the home team... 32.75 matches per year suit this strategy and shows an average profit of 3.41 units (ROI: 10.42%)... 6 of the last 8 years were profitable..
3.41 units sound very low for one year, but imagine you found trends for 30-40 leagues/sports...

In NBA and NHL I made 4 groups to find trends.. east-east, west - east, east - west and west-west..
I will also bet the Over 221.5 line in every single NBA game...

Cassini in his blog speaks about "beast" (google it) and plays the Over 215.5 line...
I think that the bookies see that the average points per game jumped too match and set their lines accordingly..
The 2017/18 season points average was 208.89 and betting the over 215.5 line showed around 10% ROI.., but season 2018/19 shows 220.36!!!
Over 221.5 is good for now only, but I almost sure I will move it forward as the season continue...

Bank and unit..
Starting bank size (a few hundreds of euro).. Unit size: 1%.
I played 2%... 2.5%... and 1.25%...but starting from 2019 the unit size will be 1% only... There will be draw downs during the year and I want to reduce risks.. I made stupid things after loosing 20% of the bank during the day and I'm still not sure in myself (hopefully 2019 will change it for good with my co-operation...)

Tuesday, 30 October 2018

Premier League Surprises - where they are?

All my models are based on past data... and based on closing odds..
As I described before - I use a bot that place bets 1 minute before kick-off if it fit my model, so my plays are very-very close to "closing" odds..

According to the last eight years data - it was very profitable to play big home underdogs in EPL, but season 2018-19 shows a 0-9 run from the start of the season...
I was lucky enough to start my plays after the season start and own a 0-2 record, but still it's disappointing..
The favorites are 8-1-0 (there even no enough draws... for a plays with a hope for a win. Is the differences between the teams so big? The scores shows a big YES.
Liverpool, Man.City and Chelsea started the season in storm and play even the very weak opponents in full squads.. My model shows an average of 20 matches per season that good for a play, but after 10 rounds (out of 38) already 9 matches fit the strategy... and it's one more sign for a bigger gap between the teams...
Having a lot of a strategies in my portfolio - I will continue with those underdog plays, but (in this 3 leaders season) I'm very skeptic - it will have a success in this season.

Here is the data of the last 8 seasons (playing home dogs with odds around 7):


Monday, 22 October 2018

"Liiga" - Finland Hockey League trends

In one of my posts (here or on twitter) I mentioned that currently working on Finland Hockey League model.. The work is now over and I found nothing interesting for me... but..
European hockey lines are including the possibility to bet on "Draw" after 60 minutes and not a lazy bettor can quit easily find draw trends (with a nice profit).


The average odds for a "Draw" in Finland are 4.46 (in last 8 seasons) and betting them blindly shows + 34 units (poor ROI of 1% out of 3446 selections)...

One filter can change a lot... You can bet only on "close matches" (where the difference between the teams is up to 10%) and You already getting only 890 selections and 89 units profit (nice ROI of 10%).

 I'm personally don't want it in my portfolio, because it not shows profit every year (or at least 7 out of 8 last checked years), but those who want should know that in last 4 seasons this easy to make system made a ROI of 31%



What's next?
I will take it easy and will work on more soccer leagues to add to my model.. (Right now 10 in my list:
Argentina, Brazil, Japan, USA, S.Korea, Norway, Sweden (both), Finland, Ireland.
Those leagues are close to finish their seasons and I'll be ready for the next season..).

WNBA, NRL, AFL and MLB are also on my wish list..

See Ya:)

Wednesday, 26 September 2018

More Numbers...

As I mentioned in my previous post - all the past data of my strategies organized and I easily can make comparisons..

From the start of 2018-19 season 436 picks fit my model (I don't include here the strategy that I copied from 3rd party site). 

I started to make my wagers on September 14, so missed a huge part of it (but it's doesn't matter now). Here is the data:
My model was build on the last 8 seasons (from 2010-11 to 2017-18).
The 10.6% ROI and 46.08 units in current season looks like a good sign for the model, but how it doing comparing to seasons 2010-11 - 2017-18?

Here what I found:


Only in 2014-2015 there were fewer units than 46.08 after 436 plays (finished 7th from 8 on ROI).
Season 2011-12 had 152.78 units (best result after 436 plays), but at the end of the season finished last on ROI.

The average odds are an important factor in this data (I ignore it here).
The average odds for the winning plays in the current season are 2.52, while the average odds for the loosing plays are 3.07, so obvious it's important. 

See Ya :)

Sunday, 23 September 2018

Last 8 seasons data now organized!!!

Finally, organized the data from the last 8 seasons..
To finish with it was very important for me for a few reasons: I now know what to expect for (how much plays there are usually will be per season, what strategies are doing good/bad comparing to past etc.).
Overall there will be a few dozens of strategies (7 of them taken from 3rd party as copy/paste).
Organizing the data from the past gave the opportunity to check how many plays I missed in current season (I started on September 14, 2018 while the first plays for this season started already in July).

Let me focus first on my strategies... Twenty soccer leagues involved..
On average, there is around 2343 plays per season (good to have a bot :) ). The average profit is 466 units (I for sure, will be satisfied with a half from it)..

From the start of the season I missed 315 plays (those had 26.99 units profit and a ROI of 8.6%). The profit is a good sign for the future, although the profitability is lower than the past data shows.
From September 14, there were 97 plays suiting the (my) strategies and those had 13.21 units profit and a ROI of 13.6%.


17.58% of the average plays per season already done, but the profit is only 8.62% of the average profit..

All in all I satisfied with the fact that 2018-19 season shows profit, but it's still too early to make any conclusions..

To make the plays it's quit easy... I insert the formulas in my excel sheet a few days before the matches take place and from then it's the BOT job ("he" places the wagers one minute before kick-off if the odds are suits the given strategy for the given league).

See Ya :)

Friday, 14 September 2018

Will this blog survive? And what is all about?

Hello, world!

Today is the day...
Almost everything ready to start placing bets without any emotions and only for long term profit.
Till now I'm on the loosing side.. I tried so many times, but the emotions and silly behavior left me time after time busted.. I was able to win 20 picks in a row, but after loosing one, totally lost my control chasing and placing bets on events I'm not even familiar with.

I love numbers.. and such a love usually brings money, but not in my case.. TILL NOW (I HOPE).

In order to escape crazy behavior, my only way to win is to use a strategy and stick to it.. and I started my research..

People mostly not change, so the best way in my eyes is looking for trends.. There are trends for the bookmaker work (setting up the opening odds) and there are trends for the betting public (setting the closing odds).. Yes, the bookies can adapt, but usually it takes time.

My concentration was on 20 main soccer leagues.. Comparing between favorites and underdogs - I looked for trends in every league and league (asking: what if I'll bet, for example, on Home Win in every single match when the difference between the teams is 0% to 5% according to Pinnacle closing odds?)
I looked for ROI over 10% and minimum 100 matches in the last 7-8 seasons, suiting the trend... Once finding such a trend - I looked if every single season behave the same.. only if 7 of 8, or 6 from 7 showed a profit around 10% (ROI) - I picked it for betting that will start today..
Is it data mining? The time will show, but I think is not.

There is also other strategies, but about them later...

Bet size: 1.25% of the bank (for now)

I'm not sure that I'll have too many readers, but for some reason I want to share my thoughts and way with others.. (I also have an account on blogabet, but feel like it will be very difficult to post my picks there as 90%-95 % will be placed seconds before kick-off...

I will reset the stats there today and will post  over/under picks that not necessary have to be used with closing odds - about this strategy - later...)

There is still some Excel work to do, as I want to have a tool that will compare placed bets (don't like this word) to the past.

See Ya :)

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