NBA Totals - Don't want to be greedy, but...

The over this season continues to be profitable..

Starting from January 1, 2019 I started to sell 1.5 points to pinnacle.
The bookies total vs. final score have a delta (difference) of more than 16 points as of December 23.
In other words, on average, the bookies miss the total by 16 points (over or under)...
It seems like a big miss!!!

For example: If the line is 221.5 and the odds are around 1.952 - the odds for over 223 (or under 220) are around 2.12 (almost 0.17 more).. In order just to break even I should win 6 of 7 (85.7%) or the bookies should set the line in around 1.5 point of final score in 14.3% of matches... But it's not the case..

As I mentioned.. the delta as of December 23 is a huge 16 points!!!
The bookies were in around 1.5 points from the final score only 4.95% of times.

In numbers... 

Let's say you had 150 picks playing over picks with odds of 1.952 and have only around 5% ROI (81 wins - 69 losses)...
Betting on 1.5 point (more or less) left you with 77 wins (81 - 4.95% = 77) and 73 losses..
But the odds are 2.12 - so your ROI is (77*2.12-150)/150 = 9%.

And 9% is much better than 5% :)

Actually it's even better than 9%, because I'm not counting the pushes..

Will be interesting to check this simple improvement (?) for past seasons..

About Betaminic.com and my strategies there

A few months ago I found a very good site.. Betaminic.com
The logo of the site: BIG Data for BIG Winners and I totally agree.
The owners did a great job, building a site (tool) where you can create different strategies using historical data and many filters...

They did a huge mistake (my opinion)... calculations of the profitability based on opening odds... WHY?
The opening odds means nothing and trying to find a winning strategy using them is nothing else, but data mining.

At the start of the season I copied 7 different system from them (even made a few real bets)..
According to those systems the average ROI was more than 20% (last 6 years).
"Surprisingly" in 2018-19 the systems are - 56 units and -16% ROI (from 339 bets, playing 1 unit per play).
Not a totally bad idea can be lay those selections :)

The site worth a visit.
The idea is very good and the site for sure will have its community.

P.S.
For my readers (and I have only a few :) )
I decided to "revert to draft" a few of my previous posts in which I mentioned money (it doesn't matter if I bet a few euros or thousands - it should be personal information).
Such an information do effect readers (and it's wrong), because it's a nature of human being.
Someday, maybe, I will edit those posts and remove the unnecessary information.

Happy New Year!!!

What a great date for a post!!!

Most of us think that a new year (or a new month or our birthday etc.) is a new starting point and everything will change for good... The date means nothing although we will change our attitude and discipline...

I thought it will be a good idea to delete my previous posts and start everything (including this blog) from a white empty list, but I'm not sure yet..

Inspired by the blog of Cassini (http://green-all-over.blogspot.com) and my own ideas - I do think I found a way to make a profit from betting (hate this word) on sports..

The best way to do so is to find trends in different leagues (mostly soccer) and stick to the plan..
I started to do so with the help of my bot.. "He" place bets one minute before the start of the event (kind of "closing odds") if the odds suggesting so.

Trends...How it works for me?
Example:
Russian Premier League. According to closing odds of the last 8 years, betting on home team in every single match is profitable... There was 1289 matches (pinnacle odds) and betting every home team shows +18.57 units (ROI: 1.44%). Good sign for looking for a profit, but the profit is very low!!
Step 2: I compare the difference (in odds) between the favorites and underdogs to find where from the most of profit came...
In Russia, in matches where the difference between the favorites and underdogs is up to 15% and the home team is favorite - I'll bet the home team... 32.75 matches per year suit this strategy and shows an average profit of 3.41 units (ROI: 10.42%)... 6 of the last 8 years were profitable..
3.41 units sound very low for one year, but imagine you found trends for 30-40 leagues/sports...

In NBA and NHL I made 4 groups to find trends.. east-east, west - east, east - west and west-west..
I will also bet the Over 221.5 line in every single NBA game...

Cassini in his blog speaks about "beast" (google it) and plays the Over 215.5 line...
I think that the bookies see that the average points per game jumped too match and set their lines accordingly..
The 2017/18 season points average was 208.89 and betting the over 215.5 line showed around 10% ROI.., but season 2018/19 shows 220.36!!!
Over 221.5 is good for now only, but I almost sure I will move it forward as the season continue...

Bank and unit..
Starting bank size (a few hundreds of euro).. Unit size: 1%.
I played 2%... 2.5%... and 1.25%...but starting from 2019 the unit size will be 1% only... There will be draw downs during the year and I want to reduce risks.. I made stupid things after loosing 20% of the bank during the day and I'm still not sure in myself (hopefully 2019 will change it for good with my co-operation...)